USD recovers after jobs worry
The US dollar recovered on Thursday – higher for the first time after eight consecutive days of losses – as markets looked ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve decision.
The greenback has weakened over the last fortnight as bets firmed for a rate cut next week, but financial markets have now steadied at around 90% probability.
The USD was stronger despite more bad news on the jobs front, with the Revelio Labs employment update showing its second losing month in a row. The news followed yesterday’s weaker ADP jobs number.
The AUD/USD backed away from recent highs after it moved above the 0.6600 resistance zone but remained positive for the day with a 0.1% gain.
The NZD/USD fell 0.2%, while the greenback was also stronger in Asia with USD/SGD down 0.2% and USD/CNH down 0.1%.
Euro pressured on German political stress
The stronger US dollar was most pronounced in Europe, with the GBP/USD down 0.2% and USD/CHF losing 0.5%.
Most notably, the euro fell, with markets looking to a key vote in Germany that could threaten the fragile coalition between Chancellor Merz’s CDU and the Social Democrats. The vote on pension reform is due Friday night (APAC time).
The EUR/USD fell 0.2%, but the euro has underperformed in other markets.
The AUD/EUR neared a six-month high at 0.5690, while NZD/EUR climbed to a one-month high.
The EUR/SGD remains near recent highs, however, supported by JPY-driven weakness across Asia.
US PCE looms
Tonight, the highlight in the US will be the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauge – favoured by the Fed over CPI as a better measure of price pressures.
The long-delayed headline annual September PCE number is forecast to climb from 2.7% to 2.8%.
The University of Michigan consumer confidence numbers will also be watched.
AUD/USD, AUD/EUR at highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 1 – 6 Dec
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
