Aussie below 0.7000 after Trump warning to Iran
Key FX markets were lower in early trading on Monday as markets reacted to US President Donald Trump’s latest ultimatum to Iran.
President Trump issued a 48-hour deadline to Iran, warning he would “obliterate” power plants in the country if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The Australian dollar opened lower, extending Friday’s 0.9% loss and falling back below the key 0.7000 level.
The kiwi was also weaker in early trading after a 0.7% loss on Friday. NZD/USD has fallen back towards two‑month lows at 0.5775 – a break below this level sets up further potential losses.
In Asia, USD/JPY gained 0.9% on Friday, leading the USD higher across the region. USD/CNH and USD/SGD both climbed 0.4%.
Oil higher despite US moves to ease Hormuz strain
Earlier, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US has already lifted restrictions on about 130 million barrels of Russian oil held in floating storage and may, in the coming days, lift restrictions on Iranian oil currently on tankers. He described this as part of a “break the glass” plan to ease a temporary bottleneck linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
Bessent said Iran has around 140 million barrels in floating storage—roughly 10 to 14 days of supply—and argued the US could use those barrels to keep oil prices down for the next couple of weeks while the broader campaign continues. He also urged allies to join a coalition around the Strait, saying they rely on that oil more than the US does.
The higher oil price continues to mostly benefit countries that are energy exporters, with the US, Australian and Canadian dollars the most obvious outperformers in the developed FX space. The euro, British pound and Japanese yen have been the clear underperformers.
Inflation takes centre stage as data flow heats up
The week beginning 23 March brings a packed calendar of inflation and growth data, setting the tone for FX markets. In Asia, Singapore’s February CPI (Monday) will offer an early read on regional price pressures, while Australia’s CPI (Wednesday) is expected to reinforce the RBA’s cautious stance as YoY inflation in the last reading remains elevated at 3.8%. Japan’s national CPI (Tuesday) will be closely watched for signs of persistent inflation, with the headline rate expected to be steady at 1.5% YoY.
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) releases dominate early in the week, with Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, UK and US all reporting March flash readings. These will provide timely insights into global growth momentum, especially as the Eurozone composite PMI (Tuesday) holds above 50, signalling expansion. Germany’s IFO survey (Wednesday) and GfK consumer confidence (Thursday) will further illuminate sentiment in Europe’s largest economy.
In New Zealand, the ANZ consumer confidence index (Friday) will be scrutinised for clues on household sentiment and potential RBNZ policy implications.
In the US, Q4 current account data (Wednesday) and nonfarm productivity (Tuesday) will be key for dollar direction, alongside PMI releases and the University of Michigan sentiment survey (Saturday).
With inflation and growth data in focus across major economies, FX volatility may pick up, especially if surprises emerge in CPI or PMI prints.
USD stronger especially in Asia
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 23 – 28 March
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
