Crude oil rally puts global nerves on edge
Global markets fell again overnight, with the US Dow Jones dropping 1.6% as the latest surge in energy prices stoked renewed worries about growth and inflation.
WTI crude traded above USD80 per barrel for the first time since April 2024, while Brent briefly pushed past USD85, reflecting intensifying supply fears linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
Risk-sensitive currencies fell the most. The Australian dollar fell 1.0% against the USD, while the New Zealand dollar slipped 0.8%.
Across Asia, the USD extended its climb, with USD/JPY and USD/SGD both rising 0.4%, and USD/CNH up 0.3%.
Looking forward, apart from further Iran news, markets will be focused on tonight’s US non-farm payrolls number. After stronger US data this week, markets are looking to 60K new jobs after last months 130k reading.
Aussie slips as Fed voices split as Iran war clouds rate‑cut outlook
Federal Reserve officials struck a more cautious tone as geopolitical risks complicate the outlook.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he is now less confident in his earlier call for a quarter‑point cut. Cleveland’s Hammack warned that the conflict could add to inflation pressure and said he would oppose aggressive easing under incoming chair Kevin Warsh.
Governor Miran remained dovish, arguing that continued rate cuts are appropriate because the economic impact of the conflict is still uncertain.
AUD/USD has slipped roughly 1.3% from its 12 February high of 0.7147. Traders are watching support at the 50‑day EMA of 0.6936, with deeper support at the 100‑day EMA of 0.6807 as potential buy zones.
Bessent says Trump’s tariff hike to 15% likely this week
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump’s plan to lift US tariffs from 10% to 15% will likely take effect this week. He did not specify which countries would be targeted.
Bessent noted the authority for the new tariff rate lasts 150 days without congressional approval. During that window, officials plan to use alternative legal mechanisms to rebuild the tariff framework that existed before the Supreme Court decision that limited presidential power.
USD/JPY has fallen about 1.4% from its 14 January high of 159.45.
Oil surge boosts greenback
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 2 – 7 March
All times AEDT
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
