Oil plunges as Trump delays major strike
Global FX markets kicked off the new week with another highly volatile session. Markets initially sold off sharply after US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran.
However, President Trump later said he would delay major strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, triggering a sharp reversal in oil markets. Brent crude fell 11%.
The AUD/USD led gains, rebounding from six-week lows after falling 1.5% earlier in the session, to finish down just 0.1%.
The NZD/USD also recovered after dropping as much as 1.2% overnight, ending the session 0.4% higher.
Fed angst over rates could weigh on Aussie
Fed officials sent mixed signals on interest rates, as uncertainty around tariffs and global tensions continues to cloud the outlook.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said there is no need to raise rates, arguing inflation should ease in the second half of the year. “Once we get past tariffs and maybe the second quarter, you’re going to see inflation come back down,” he said, while adding that caution is still warranted.
Waller did not rule out policy moves later this year, noting he would be open to rate cuts if conditions improve and the labour market remains soft.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman struck a different tone, sticking to her forecast for three rate cuts in 2026. On the Middle East, she said it is too early to judge the impact of the Iran conflict, but expects supply-side policies to gradually feed through to the economy.
The AUD/USD is edging closer to a short-term downtrend, with the 8- and 21-day moving averages now pointing lower.
The pair is roughly 2.4% below its recent high of 0.7187, last seen on 11 March.
The next key support level sits at the 100-day EMA near 0.6860.
Fuel shortages put pressure on Asia-linked currencies
Airlines are scrambling to draw up contingency plans as jet fuel supplies tighten, particularly across Asia.
The Financial Times reports that carriers are unable to secure fuel supply guarantees beyond early to mid-April. Asia is at the centre of the concern, with airlines warning that planes flying from Europe may be unable to refuel for the return leg. In some cases, that could force carriers to suspend routes altogether.
Fuel stocks in Europe remain adequate for now, but conditions in Asia are far more strained.
Among Asia-Pacific currencies, USD/CNH climbed to a near two-week high in Asian trading before turning lower in line with the oil price weakness.
The next key resistance level sits at the 100-day EMA near 6.9719.
The USD/SGD ended the session down 0.5% after trading in a wide 1.1% range.
Greenback weaker as oil tumbles
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 23 – 28 March
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
