USD at two-month highs ahead of US jobs report
The US dollar held on to recent gains overnight, with the benchmark USD index trading near two-month highs.
All eyes are on tonight’s critical US jobs report, with non-farm payrolls scheduled for 10:30pm AEST. Financial markets expect 95k new jobs in May, down from last month’s 115k, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%.
A stronger result, particularly any upside in average hourly earnings, could push the USD higher.
In other markets, AUD/USD was flat, while NZD/USD rose 0.1%. In Europe, the Swiss franc outperformed, while the euro and GBP were broadly flat.
Australia trade rebound fails to lift Aussie
Australia’s goods trade balance returned to a A$1.8bn surplus in April, beating expectations, after March’s revised A$1.0bn deficit—the weakest since 2016. Exports rose 7.2% month-on-month across the board, while imports increased 0.8%.
Energy exports have trended lower over the past year but continue to provide strong support, with net energy exports at around A$77bn in April, or roughly 2.25% of the economy.
AUD/USD is trading near the 50-day EMA at 0.7128. A break lower would target the 100-day EMA at 0.7039, while a move higher would bring the 21-day EMA at 0.7160 into focus.
AUD positioning has eased from recent highs, suggesting weaker conviction behind AUD strength. Relative moves reinforce this: AUD/NZD sits at a one-week high, while AUD/EUR, AUD/GBP, and AUD/CNY remain at one-week lows.
USD/SGD and USD/CNH firmer as geopolitical tensions linger
President Trump told aides he will not escalate to a full conflict with Iran unless American troops are killed, according to the Wall Street Journal. He is maintaining the ceasefire despite ongoing skirmishes, signalling a preference to avoid a broader war even as tensions persist.
Fighting picked up midweek, with Kuwait and Bahrain caught in the crossfire during the sharpest escalation since the April truce. Iran said talks show “no tangible progress,” while Trump maintains that discussions are going well.
In APAC FX, USD/CNH is trading around 0.3% above its recent low of 6.7581 (2 June). The pair needs a break above the 21-day EMA at 6.7900 to build upward momentum. A move higher would expose the 50-day EMA at 6.8194, followed by the 100-day EMA at 6.8692.
USD/SGD rose 0.2% yesterday, with the pair now at two-month highs. The next major resistance level is 1.2900.
Aussie, kiwi losing momentum
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Calendar: 1 – 5 June
All times AEST
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
