USD stays strong ahead of PCE and GDP
Global markets stabilised overnight, with US technology stocks recovering after a heavy sell-off that saw the tech-focused Nasdaq fall more than 6% from its highs.
Despite the rebound in equities, the USD remained broadly higher. The USD index, a measure of greenback strength, climbed to its highest level since May 2025.
AUD/USD fell 0.2%, while NZD/USD lost 0.3%.
USD/CNH gained 0.3%, while USD/SGD rose 0.1%.
Tonight, markets turn to the key US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) print. A stronger reading could push the USD higher.
Aussie slips on softer CPI, jobs data due
Australia’s May CPI rose 4.0% y/y, undershooting expectations of 4.3% and easing from 4.2% previously. However, underlying pressures firmed, with trimmed mean CPI printing at 3.6% y/y, above both the 3.5% forecast and 3.4% prior.
Attention now shifts to today’s jobs data. Consensus expects a 32.5k rise in employment, following last month’s 18.6k decline. The unemployment rate is forecast to edge down from 4.5% to 4.4%.
AUD/USD is hovering near a three-month low, around 5% below its 6 May peak of 0.7278. Near-term resistance sits at the 100 day moving average (0.7033), followed by the 21 day moving average near 0.7044. On the downside, 0.6900 remains key support.
AUD/CNY is also under pressure, trading at a five-month low.
BoJ keeps tightening bias but flags caution
The BoJ’s June Summary of Opinions kept the door open for further rate increases. Some members argued that borrowing costs should move closer to a neutral level, estimated at around 2%, as price pressures broaden.
At the same time, one member warned that higher rates could weigh on investment, output, and employment, raising the risk of a return to deflation. The board also backed a plan to stop cutting JGB purchases from April 2027.
Overall, the message points to a gradual rise in Japan’s rate path, balanced by internal caution around timing and balance sheet adjustments.
In Asia, USD/SGD is trading about 3% above its 28 January low of 1.2586. Support sits near the 21 day EMA at 1.2868, with the 50 day EMA close by at 1.2823. Current levels may present opportunities for USD sellers.
Sea of red as USD storms higher
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 22-27 June
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
