Copper tariff shock sends metals soaring amid Trump trade tensions
President Trump announced a 50% tariff rate on copper imports, double the consensus view of 25%.
Comex copper jumped as much as 17% with September 2025 futures topping 580 before softening to ~550 by New York close on implementation timeline uncertainty.
Trump sounded more positive about the EU, saying he is “probably two days off from sending an EU letter.”
The EUR/USD remained supported above, provided it is above the 21-day EMA of 1.1647 despite ongoing tariff uncertainty.
Trump said he is “getting along with China President Xi… We speak often” with USD/CNH now supported by 7.1800.
Kiwi steadies as upbeat US consumer outlook eases inflation fears
US consumers are feeling better about their finances and expect inflation to hold steady. A survey from the New York Fed released Monday shows that inflation expectations barely budged in June, while confidence in household finances continued to grow.
One-year inflation is now pegged at 3%, down from May’s 3.2%, according to the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Outlooks for the three-year and five-year horizons remained stable at 3.0% and 2.6%, respectively. More households now expect to be financially better off in a year, and fewer anticipate setbacks.
In FX, re inflation theme, the NZD/USD is hovering near its 50-day moving average of 0.5985. A break above the 21-day average at 0.6028 would signal a stronger push from the kiwi.
Aussie holds ground as RBA pauses rate cuts
Markets didn’t see it coming, but they held their nerve. The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised traders by pausing its rate cuts, keeping the cash rate steady at 3.85%. Despite the unexpected move, longer-term borrowing rates edged up just slightly—now hovering a bit above 3% for early 2026.
The RBA’s vote split (six for a hold, three wanting a cut) added a layer of uncertainty. Some worry the timing may be off, but if the next inflation report confirms further cooling, the rate cutting path could still be intact.
In FX, AUD/USD found support at the 21-day average of 0.6521 and has now climbed to over 70% of its monthly range. Stronger commodity prices may lift the Aussie further, but it’ll need to break past 0.6600 to keep the momentum going.
Focus on RBNZ rate decision today
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 7 – 12 July
All times AEST
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
