2 minute read

All eyes on China ahead of trade balance

Aussie boosted as barley ban ends.

Financial markets shake-off post-job blues

Financial markets largely recovered from Friday’s post-jobs related sell-off with US shares stronger but bond yields also pushing higher.

The US’s S&P 500 gained 0.9%. US ten-year bond yields climbed from 4.06% to 4.10%.

In FX markets, the higher US bond yields dominated action, with the US dollar mostly stronger.

The USD/JPY gained 0.6% as it recovered from one-week lows. The EUR/USD fell 0.1% after more bad news from Germany. German industrial production fell by 1.5% — more than the 0.5% expected — as the global manufacturing decline continued to weigh.

Aussie boosted as barley ban ends

The Australian dollar was mostly higher on Monday with the currency boosted by hopes of a relaxing in some of China’s trade restrictions. 

On Friday, China’s Commerce Ministry announced it would remove the 80.5% anti-dumping tariffs on Australian barley.

The tariffs were introduced in mid-2020 around the same time Australia’s Morrison government called for an international enquiry into the origins of Covid-19, but relations had deteriorated earlier as tensions grew around the US-China trade war.

China trade balance in focus

Australian confidence numbers are the early focus today with consumer confidence at 10:30am and business confidence at 11:30am AEST.

Chinese trade balance is also due today with the most recent data showing a sharp drop in both exports and imports.

Most notably, exports fell by 12.4% in the twelve months to June, in another sign of how the ongoing slowdown in global manufacturing hits China, Germany and international commodity markets.

USD rebounds as markets shake-off jobs report   

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: 7 – 11 August  

All times AEST

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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

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