Aussie higher for second day as US shares recover
US shares recovered for a second day on Monday boosted by renewed hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Fed board member Chris Waller told Fox Business that a rate cut next month would help support the US jobs market. After a roller-coaster ride that saw the probability of a rate cut fall to 41% last week, the market implied chance of a rate cut is back at 77% (source: Bloomberg).
The Australian dollar led the somewhat muted FX gains with the pair up 0.2% but the AUD/USD remains in a clear downtrend. Any further rally might stall at the 21-day moving average near 0.6500 as seen in recent moves higher.
NZ Treasury flags weak momentum as kiwi stalls
New Zealand’s economy has yet to build broad momentum across sectors despite improving indicators, the Treasury said in its latest update. Manufacturing shows signs of renewed activity, but services continue to lag as consumers hold back on spending.
Net migration has begun to stabilise, which should support consumption, yet weak sentiment in recent confidence surveys was reflected in flat October spending.
The news is key ahead of Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision.
In FX markets, the kiwi stays stuck in a descending price channel. The next key resistance lies at 21-day EMA of 0.5664, followed by 50-day EMA of 0.5731.
NZD buyers may look to take advantage once NZD/USD breaks out of the descending price channel.
USD dips in Asia on shutdown growth hit
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday the 43‑day government shutdown delivered a permanent $11 billion blow to the US economy, but he insisted growth prospects for 2026 remain strong. Speaking on NBC, Bessent said, “We have set the table for a very strong, non‑inflationary growth economy.”
He noted that rate‑sensitive sectors such as housing had slipped into recession, but stressed the broader economy was not at risk of contraction. Bessent blamed the services sector for driving inflation, while predicting falling energy costs would help ease prices more widely.
In Asia, the US dollar was mostly lower, dropping to a one‑week low against the Yuan.
The next key resistance lies at 21-day EMA of 7.1154, followed by 50-day EMA of 7.1250.
USD/SGD slipped from six-month highs.
Greenback down for second day
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 24 – 29 November
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
