Aussie retreats from last week’s highs
US equities closed mostly lower on Friday, while the Australian dollar slipped from last week’s highs as markets brace for a wave of delayed US data releases.
The recent US government shutdown suspended key economic reports, but this week they’re set to trickle in, starting with the September jobs report on Thursday night (APAC time), a major focus for investors.
The AUD/USD drifted during Friday’s session but managed a modest 0.1% gain. The kiwi outperformed, with NZD/USD up 0.5%.
Across Asia, the US dollar was broadly softer: USD/SGD fell 0.2%, while USD/CNH held steady.
GBP ends week at lows
Sterling was among last week’s weakest performers after disappointing employment data and softer GDP figures.
The pound fell sharply against both the Australian and New Zealand dollars, with AUD/GBP hitting a nine-month high before easing.
This week’s UK CPI release will be pivotal. Recent labour market weakness and underwhelming Q3 GDP growth have weighed on sentiment, yet markets remain hesitant to fully price in a Bank of England rate cut.
If inflation confirms the disinflation trend seen in September, GBP could face further downside pressure.
US data backlog in focus
With the shutdown over, the US government will begin releasing delayed data. Key reports include Tuesday’s industrial production and the weekly jobs report on 20 November.
Most notably, the September nonfarm payrolls report, originally postponed, is due on 20 November (US time), or 12:30am AEDT on 21 November.
A series of PMIs across the UK, France, Germany, the eurozone, and the US will also offer a snapshot of sentiment. However, given recent eurozone PMI surprises versus broader macro trends, investors are likely to treat these readings cautiously.
Aussie, kiwi mostly higher last week
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 17 – 22 November
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
