Aussie lowest since March as Democrat win hits tech outlook
The Australian dollar led losses on Friday, falling to its lowest level since 31 March as global markets remained under pressure from worries about the outlook for technology stocks following last week’s Democratic US midterm win.
Some major technology stocks fell more than 20% over the week, while South Korea’s Kospi lost more than 10%. The Nasdaq 100 suffered its largest one-day decline since March 2020, wiping out USD2.3 trillion in market value.
AUD/USD fell 1.9% over the week, while NZD/USD lost 1.3%.
The Aussie was also pressured by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision, which signalled policymakers may be willing to pause and assess the impact of earlier rate hikes.
The kiwi was hit by a rise in New Zealand’s unemployment rate from 5.6% to 5.7%. NZD/USD fell to its lowest level since August 2025.
Record pay gains keep a BoJ hike in play
Japan’s average cash earnings jumped 4.6% y/y in September, beating forecasts of 3.8% for the fastest increase since January 1997. Real wages rose 2.2%, marking a ninth consecutive increase.
Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) September meeting showed policymakers still favoured further rate increases, with one member urging faster action if inflation rises more than expected. Officials also see food costs and Middle East energy risks adding to inflation pressures.
We think strong wage growth supports the case for a December rate hike.
USD/JPY has fallen to a one-week low and is trading near 157.90, around 3.7% below its 23 July peak of 163.99. Resistance is located at the 100-day EMA of 158.30, while support remains at 157.00.
Meanwhile, AUD/JPY has fallen to a three-week low and SGD/JPY to a one-week low, highlighting the yen’s relative strength.
Inflation in the driver’s seat
US CPI headlines the calendar on Wednesday, with headline inflation expected to cool to 0.3% m/m from 0.6% and core inflation to 0.2% from 0.3%.
China opens the week on Monday, with CPI forecast to ease to 0.8% y/y while PPI rises to 5.4%. China’s October trade figures follow on Tuesday, with stronger export and import growth expected.
Germany’s final CPI is due Wednesday and Japan’s PPI follows on Thursday, before US producer prices close the week early Saturday.
The UK releases preliminary Q3 GDP and September industrial production on Thursday, followed by the eurozone’s second Q3 GDP estimate on Friday.
In Australia, Westpac consumer confidence and the NAB business survey are due Tuesday, with business confidence coming off a weak -13 reading. New Zealand’s manufacturing PMI follows on Friday after a strong 56.5 reading.
Aussie, kiwi near major lows
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 9 – 14 November
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
