RBA seen likely to cut
The Australian dollar drifted lower overnight ahead of a likely rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia today.
Financial markets have ascribed a 106% probability of a rate cut meaning there is some mathematical chance the RBA might “go large” with a 50-basis point cut.
According to a Bloomberg poll of economists published on 11 August, all survey respondents expected the RBA to cut by 25 basis points to 3.60%.
Later tonight the focus shifts to US inflation, with the July CPI report key ahead of next month’s Federal Reserve decision. US CPI is due at 10.30pm AEST.
Alaska showdown: Trump, Putin, and maybe Zelensky
President Donald Trump says he’ll meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, August 15. He made the announcement on social media, and a senior US official later confirmed to NBC News that the White House is now focused on organizing the bilateral meeting requested by Putin.
But there’s more in play. Officials are considering inviting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to join the talks. Zelensky has made his stance clear: any deal struck without Ukraine is a “dead solution,” and Kyiv won’t trade land for peace.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that European leaders are scrambling to speak with Trump before the meeting, citing unnamed sources.
In currency markets, expect turbulence—especially in high-volatility pairs like AUD/USD. The Australian dollar faces a tough week, with a rate cut already baked in, and the pair was weaker overnight.
NZD/USD is also in the spotlight. It’s testing resistance near 50-day EMA 0.5968, while support sits at 100-day EMA 0.5939.
Trade talks near finish line as Bessent eyes October wrap-up
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says trade negotiations with holdout nations should wrap up by October, according to comments made to Nikkei Asia. Key partners like Canada, Mexico, and Switzerland are still hammering out terms to improve their trade relationships with Washington.
Bessent singled out China as the most “imbalanced” economy in modern history. He suggested that if those imbalances ease, the US could dial back its reciprocal tariffs.
In a separate statement, Bessent emphasized the Federal Reserve’s independence but added that its next leader should be “forward-thinking” rather than anchored in past data. He’s part of the committee tasked with selecting Jerome Powell’s successor.
Markets responded with enthusiasm, with the Nasdaq hitting fresh highs last Friday and again overnight.
The dollar-yuan pair, however, held steady. USD/CNH hovered above its 21-day EMA of 7.1835, with the next major resistance level at the 100-day EMA of 7.2042.
Aussie holds higher even as oil tumbles
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 11 – 16 August
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
