Holly Thompson

Markets were muted as the Fed held rates with rare dovish dissent, while tariffs inflated GDP and lifted the dollar.

Markets are riding a wave of deal-led optimism, with tariff tensions easing and equities hitting fresh highs. But beneath the surface, risks remain as central banks pause and volatility season looms. Traders may soon have to reckon with what’s been overlooked.

Resilient U.S. data kept markets steady, lifting the dollar and crypto despite political noise.

Tariff letters reaffirm April 2 levels; implementation delayed to August 1. Japan’s rate rises to 25%; Brazil jumps to 50% for political reasons.

Stronger-than-expected US jobs cut Fed rate odds to 5%, while July 9 tariffs loom over stalled global trade talks.

Geopolitical tensions eased and equities rallied, weakening the dollar. Dovish Fed commentary and speculation over Powell’s succession added pressure, pushing the euro above $1.17 and lifting most G10 currencies.