Holly Thompson
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Defensive positioning going into tariff event
Uncertainty likely to persist beyond Liberation Day. Euro held back by softer inflation. Lacking directional conviction.
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Price swings are the new normal
Weak economic data and trade uncertainty weighed on sentiment, with equities holding modest gains. Stagflation fears are replacing tariff optimism. The Fed is cautious to rate cuts, Germany’s Ifo index rose, and GBP remains resilient despite Spring Statement worries.
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From optimism to caution: Flows shift post-Fed
Fed kept rates unchanged. Post-Fed rally was short-lived. President Lagarde warned. Bank of England left rates at 4.5%. Dollar saw renewed demand. Political uncertainty in Germany.
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Trade war sends stocks into correction
S&P 500 has entered correction territory. February inflation came in lower. President Trump announced a 200% tariff. Fed to hold rates at 4.5%. European natural gas prices to drop. UK GDP shrank 0.1%. US dollar rebounded.
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Tariffs poised to ignite inflation risks
Preemptive moves by Canadians on trade risks. Inflation data overshadowed by tariff threat. Will Trump stop the euro rally? Within a whisker of $1.30.
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US-Canada trade war intensifies
Half a day twists and turns. Dollar not profiting from tariff angst. Euro continues its surge. Look over your shoulder sterling.