Topic: Foreign Exchange
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July global FX outlook
The past month has been pivotal for FX markets as monetary policy took center stage. Are you ready to set your payments strategy for July?
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Politics over macro as dollar rises marginally
Despite signs of the US economy losing steam, the dollar remains appealing due to political turmoil in Europe, Trump rising in the polls, and FX weakness in Asia. The UK’s Q1 growth was upgraded to 0.7%, leading the G7. Meanwhile, USD/CNY is under pressure as Chinese bond yields hit two-decade lows.
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Sentiment calming but option traders still anxious
Political risk premia in Europe fell slightly this week amid French election concerns, but implied volatility remains high. Lower yields and disinflation have propelled US equity benchmarks to record highs.
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The perfect storm for bonds and equities
Macron’s snap election call, lower U.S inflation, and fewer Fed rate cuts sparked market volatility. U.S bond yields dropped, equities hit highs, and European markets fell. EUR/USD volatility surged, widening the French-German yield spread.
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Risk-on fades as US jobs above all forecast
Equity benchmarks in the US and Europe hit record highs before the non-farm report. The surprising 272k job increase reversed US treasury yield declines and reduced rate cut expectations.
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June global FX outlook
Global markets will be on edge in June as major central bank meetings could drive a return of the volatility seen in April.
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