Aussie, kiwi higher in Monday trade
The greenback remained mostly steady over the break, with stronger US jobs data and ongoing geopolitical tensions supporting the world’s most traded currency.
The USD index is now just 0.6% below ten-month highs, helped by elevated oil prices. On Monday, the US WTI contract hit its highest level since 2022, while Brent crude remained just below recent peaks.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars found support from higher oil prices. AUD/USD gained 0.3%, while NZD/USD rose 0.4%.
USD strength lingers as oil flows stay tight
OPEC+ said conflict in the Middle East is likely to keep oil supplies tight even after the fighting ends. The group announced a modest increase in output targets for May—around 206,000 barrels per day—but the move is largely symbolic.
With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted and Persian Gulf exports constrained, top producers are unable to deliver much more oil. As a result, higher quotas are unlikely to translate into meaningful supply increases.
In FX markets, higher‑beta currencies such as the Australian dollar have swung sharply in recent sessions. Charts suggest AUD/USD may have scope to close the gap with the two‑year yield differential spread.
The next upside hurdle sits near the 50‑day EMA at 0.6958, followed by the 21‑day EMA at 0.6963. On the downside, support is clustered near the 100‑day EMA at 0.6870.
USD/SGD firms after solid US jobs report
The US dollar remained supported over the Easter break, helped by Friday’s stronger‑than‑expected jobs report.
The US added 178,000 jobs in March, while February was revised lower to a loss of 133,000 positions. Employment in the household survey fell by 64,000, yet the unemployment rate declined to 4.26% from 4.44%.
The drop reflected a sharp exit from the workforce. Around 488,000 people left the labor force, the number of unemployed fell by 396,000, and the participation rate edged down to 61.9%.
In Asia FX, USD/SGD is now around 2% above its recent low of 1.2586, last seen on January 28. Key support levels sit at the 21‑day EMA (1.2818) and the 50‑day EMA (1.2791). These areas may attract interest from USD buyers looking to add on dips.
Greenback extends drop from ten-month highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 6 – 11 April
All times are in EST
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
