All eyes on Fed
The US dollar fell for a second day even as oil extended gains, with market focus now on tonight’s Federal Reserve decision.
The Fed is expected to hold rates steady, staying on pause for the second consecutive meeting, as the central bank looks to assess the impact of the Iran war on inflation.
Financial markets still expect the Fed to cut rates this year, but the first full cut is only priced in for December. This could change after tonight’s commentary.
The Aussie led gains, with AUD/USD up 0.4%, despite an initially volatile reaction to the Reserve Bank of Australia hike. NZD/USD was flat.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD both gained 0.3%.
In Asia, USD/JPY was steady, while USD/CNH and USD/SGD both fell 0.1%.
AUD/USD slips on split vote, rebounds later
AUD/USD moved lower after the RBA raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.1%, a decision that failed to gain full support.
The close 5–4 vote raised questions about whether another increase will follow in May.
Some policymakers continue to argue that strong jobs and inflation data could still force the RBA’s hand next month.
The central bank itself flagged uncertainty, twice acknowledging that it is unclear how tight policy really is.
On AUD/USD, the first level to watch sits near the 50-day average around 0.6971.
Below that, attention shifts to the 100-day average near 0.6845.
USD/SGD holds firm as export growth cools
Singapore’s exports grew 4% in February, slowing from January’s pace and falling short of expectations. Electronics shipments soared 43%, fuelled by strong demand for disk media and integrated circuits linked to AI.
This surge helped offset a 7% drop in other exports, weighed down by weaker sales of food products, petrochemicals, and gold. Singapore shipped more goods to South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, but sent less to China, India, Indonesia, and the US.
Export risks are rising as tensions in Iran escalate and the US launches new trade investigations into Singapore.
USD/SGD has pulled back in recent days but remains close to the top of its one-month range. The pair is still trading well above its recent low and is currently 1.6% higher than the 1.2586 level last seen on Jan 28.
Looking ahead, the first area to watch sits near the 50-day EMA at 1.2755. Below that, the next level of support comes in around the 21-day EMA at 1.2743.
AUD at highs after RBA
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 16 – 20 March
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
