Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
USD flexes while oil and gold diverge
Markets reacted with surprising calm to the US capture of Venezuelan President Maduro over the weekend, with implications for oil supply offsetting safe-haven flows.
The focus centers on a potential oil-Gold decoupling: oil may decline on prospects of increased Venezuelan crude exports, while Gold attracts safe-haven buying.
Venezuelan Vice President Rodriguez rejected cooperation, calling Maduro’s arrest “kidnapping” and vowing Venezuela would never be a colony. The UN Security Council convenes an emergency session Monday. Trump warned of potential second-wave attacks and announced US oil companies would rebuild Venezuela’s infrastructure.
US equities closed mixed with the S&P up 0.2% while Nasdaq was flat. Tech underperformed with Microsoft down 2.2% on AI competition concerns and Tesla falling 2.6% after its second consecutive yearly sales decline.
Dollar index prints 98.424 at the time of writing, and is on a steady climb in recent days.
AUD drifts lower as factories hold steady
Australia’s December S&P Global manufacturing PMI held at 51.6, below the expected 52.2, as new orders and output expanded more slowly. The sector stayed above the threshold between growth and contraction thanks to stronger domestic demand, while external sales remained weak. Supplier delivery times lengthened at the fastest pace in just over a year, pushing up cost pressures, though inflation stayed below long‑run averages. Business confidence improved, with firms hiring more and increasing purchases, signaling expectations of higher output next year.
AUD/USD sits about 0.7% below its recent high of 0.6728.
Key support sits at the 21-day moving average of 0.6657, and 50-day EMA of 0.6611 next.
Global inflation signals collide with US labor pulse
The week features a busy US calendar, with Saturday’s December nonfarm payrolls (consensus: +55k) and unemployment rate (expected: 4.5%) in focus. Softer job gains and subdued wage growth (+0.3% MoM expected) could reinforce expectations for Fed easing, weighing on the dollar. Earlier, ISM manufacturing (Tuesday) and services (Thursday) surveys, along with ADP employment (Thursday, 48k expected), will provide timely reads on US growth and labor momentum. The University of Michigan sentiment survey (Saturday) will offer additional insight into consumer confidence.
Eurozone and German CPI prints (both expected at 2% YoY) will be closely watched for disinflation signals, while China’s CPI (Friday) may highlight persistent price weakness. French, UK, and Eurozone PMIs (Tuesday), plus Japan and Australia’s inflation and trade data, round out a busy global docket. Australia’s trade balance (Thursday) and monthly CPI (Wednesday) will be key for AUD direction.
Eurozone unemployment (Thursday) and US trade data (Friday) will also be watched for broader risk sentiment.
Aussie’s RSI nears peak
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 5 – 10 January
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
