Written by Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Dollar steadies as hope grows but risks linger
Overnight, US Treasuries rallied 1–3bps as cease-fire talks in the Middle East spurred cautious optimism, though Iran’s rejection of US proposals and continued regional attacks kept risk sentiment fragile. US equities advanced (S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.8%) on hopes for de-escalation.
US import and export prices for February surprised to the upside. Fed officials struck a cautious tone: while some see rates steady “for some time,” others require clearer evidence of inflation retreat before supporting cuts.
The BoE flagged persistent inflation risks from energy shocks, while consumer inflation expectations jumped. UK PM Starmer pledged support for energy bills as household costs rise. European equities rallied (Stoxx 600 +1.4%).
Fuel shortages hit over 600 Australian service stations, mainly in NSW and Victoria, as Middle East conflict disrupts supply. NZ’s government signaled a cautious fiscal response to the fuel crisis, ruling out broad tax cuts or price caps.
The dollar index is now at 99.60. Overnight, AUD/USD fell 0.70%, USD/SGD gained 0.26%, and USD/CNH rose 0.13%
Aussie inflation stays sticky
Australia’s headline CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year in February, just under the 3.8% forecast. Trimmed mean CPI held at 3.3%, also edging below the 3.4% estimate. With price pressures still elevated, the Reserve Bank of Australia looks likely to raise rates in May. Markets are currently pricing in a roughly 60% chance of a May rate hike.
AUD/USD is more than 3% below its recent high of 0.7187, last seen on 11 March.
The next key support level sits at the 100-day EMA near 0.6867.
USD/SGD edges higher as Iran pushes back
Iran says it will end the war only on its own terms, according to a senior official quoted by Iran’s Press TV. The official said Tehran has reviewed the US proposal but views it as excessive, adding that Iran will not allow US President Donald Trump to decide when the conflict ends.
Despite the standoff, investors still seem hopeful that the conflict will eventually cool.
In Asia, USD/SGD has climbed more than 1.7% from its recent low of 1.2586, last seen on 28 January. The next key resistance sits at the 100‑day EMA at 1.2803.
USD buyers may look to take advantage now.
Antipodeans weaker overnight
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 23 – 28 March
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
