Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
US Dollar strengthens on war jitters
The US dollar kicked off the week on a strong note, rising 0.4% in early Asia trade as the US-Iran conflict entered its second week and oil prices soared another 5-6%. The greenback’s rally was underpinned by safe-haven demand—after attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and warnings from Qatar that oil prices could spike to US$150 if disruptions persist.
US Treasuries pared losses after a shockingly weak February payrolls print (-92k vs. +55k expected), with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.44%. The US 2-year yield fell 10bps, steepening the curve, while the 10-year ended unchanged at 4.14% after briefly touching 4.18%.
The Fed enters blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC, with markets now focused on Wednesday’s US CPI and Friday’s core PCE.
European equities slumped (Stoxx -1%, DAX -0.9%, FTSE -1.2%) as energy concerns and Middle East tensions weighed.
Japan is seeking exemption from US tariff hikes, highlighting trade friction risks. In China, leadership signals intent to shield US ties from fallout over Iran, even as Beijing maintains its partnership with Tehran.
Fed Miran flags neutral rate, warns on jobs
Fed Governor Miran told CNBC the central bank doesn’t usually react to oil prices, but warned the recent shock could squeeze demand and push up core inflation. He argued the labor market needs more policy support, pointing out that first-time job seekers are taking the hardest hit. Miran put the neutral rate in the 2.50–2.75% range.
In Asia trading, the US dollar climbed against the Singapore dollar, breaking above the 100‑day EMA at 1.2809. Resistance now sits at 1.2888, while support is back at 100-day EMA of 1.2809, followed by 50-day EMA of 1.2752.
Inflation and US labor market data in focus
The week opens with China’s February CPI on Monday (last: +0.2% YoY), underscoring persistent disinflation in Asia. Japan’s PPI (Wed, last: +2.3% YoY) and Australia’s inflation expectations (Thu, last: 5.0%) add to the global price picture. The main event is US CPI on Wednesday night (MoM consensus: +0.2%, last: +0.2%; YoY consensus: +2.4%, last: +2.4%), with core CPI expected at +0.2% MoM (last: +0.3%). Later in the week, US PCE inflation (Fri, MoM consensus: +0.3%, last: +0.4%; core YoY consensus: +3.0%, last: +3.0%) will be closely watched for confirmation of the inflation trend.
Japan’s final Q4 GDP (Tue) is expected to show only a modest rebound (annualized consensus: +1.3%, last: +0.2%), highlighting ongoing fragility. US NFIB small business optimism (Tue, last: 99.3) and University of Michigan sentiment (Sat, consensus: 57.0, last: 56.6) will provide timely reads on business and consumer confidence. US durable goods orders (Fri, consensus: +1.7%, last: -1.4%) will help gauge underlying momentum.
US initial jobless claims (Thu) and JOLTS job openings (Sat, last: 3.9%) will be scrutinized for signs of labor market cooling, a key input for Fed policy.
Antipodeans slipped in early Asia
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 9 – 14 March
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
