Aussie, kiwi plunge this week
The Australian and NZ dollars continue to be among the hardest‑hit currencies as the US‑Iran war persists.
The outlook remains uncertain, with US President Donald Trump initially casting doubt on any ceasefire overnight before turning more positive on hopes for a resolution later in the session. President Trump extended his deadline for an attack on Iranian power plants to 6 April.
The Australian dollar posted the biggest losses, with AUD/USD down 0.9% overnight. The pair is down 2.0% so far this week, trading at its lowest level since 23 January.
NZD/USD fell 0.8%, also hitting its lowest level since January, and is down 1.2% so far this week.
RBA’s Kent keeps Aussie rate outlook wide open
RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent is rethinking what comes next for Australian financial conditions.
While headlines focused on his comment that a “higher neutral rate may need more restrictive policy,” Kent’s full speech was more nuanced. He addressed how financial conditions and estimates of the neutral rate are evolving. Kent left the door open, questioning whether tighter conditions from market reactions to Middle East tensions could lower the short‑term neutral rate, or whether rising inflation and inflation expectations could push it higher.
Price action suggests the market is leaning cautious for now. AUD/USD has pulled back around 4.2% from its recent high of 0.7187, last seen on March 11.
The next area to watch sits near 0.6867, close to the pair’s average price over the past 100 days.
Downside momentum does not yet look stretched, leaving room for further potential losses in the coming sessions.
Greenback higher in Asia as Miran flags inflation
Fed Governor Stephen Miran has shifted his outlook for USD rates, lifting his year‑end projection by 50 basis points after a run of stubborn inflation data.
Miran made it clear the change was not driven by oil prices or geopolitical risks, but by the data itself. He now sees the policy rate at around neutral, but still believes that a full percentage point of cuts this year would bring rates to a level that supports the economy.
In Asia, the USD has already gained some traction. USD/CNH is now more than 1% above its late‑February low of 6.8267, set on February 26.
The next upside area comes in near 6.9673, close to the pair’s 100‑day average.
With momentum turning, USD buyers may see scope to press their advantage in the near term.
In USD/SGD, the greenback was also higher, closing at the highest level since 16 January.
Greenback stronger as Iran conflict continues
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 23 – 28 March
All times AEDT
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
