Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Dollar flexes as risk currencies stumble
The dollar held firm into the New York close, gaining ground especially against risk-sensitive currencies as investor confidence waned late in the US session.
EUR/USD finished the week below the key 1.1550 level—a break that could open the door to a lower trading range. The dollar’s uneven recovery continues, but a clean break in EUR/USD could spark fresh upward momentum.
US stocks started strong, lifted by a surge in major tech earnings, but the mood shifted by mid-afternoon as enthusiasm faded. AI-related names held up, yet broader indexes lost traction.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil edged higher after OPEC+ announced a pause in output increases for the first quarter of 2026. The move signals a cautious approach to supply management amid uncertain demand forecasts.
USD/SGD climbs past 1.30 as Fed’s Hammack pushes back on rate cut
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she “would have preferred to hold rates steady” at last week’s policy meeting, warning that inflation remains too high. She emphasized the need to keep some pressure on the economy to bring prices down.
Hammack explained that the rate cut in September was driven by a sharp drop in job growth. However, she noted that since then, it’s unclear whether the labor market slowdown is due to weaker demand. She also flagged concerns about stubborn inflation in core services excluding housing, adding that new tariffs only deepen the challenge.
In Asia, the US dollar pushed above 1.3000 against the Singapore dollar, breaking a key psychological level. Traders are now watching the next support zones around 21-day EMA of 1.2964, followed by 100-day EMA of 1.2929, where dollar buyers may step in.
Central banks, PMIs and labor data set the tone
The first full week of November features a packed schedule of PMI releases across Europe, the UK, and the US, providing timely insight on global growth trends. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its rate decision Tuesday and is expected to remain on hold at 3.6%, while the Bank of England meets Thursday with no change anticipated (4%). Forward guidance from both will be closely watched as markets assess policy into year-end.
US ADP employment (Thursday) and nonfarm payrolls (Saturday) will be key for the dollar after recent labor market softness. New Zealand’s Q3 unemployment (Wednesday) will shape NZD sentiment, while UK and Eurozone services PMIs (Wednesday) should offer fresh signals on growth and inflation outlooks.
Watch for China’s trade balance, US ISM manufacturing, and Australia’s trade data as further gauges of global demand. Volatility could spike around key data releases—especially for USD, AUD, GBP, and NZD FX pairs.
Aussie retreats on dollar strength
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 3 – 7 November
*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
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