US Supreme Court to rule on tariffs
Global markets rose overnight as attention turned to the key US Supreme Court hearing on the legality of President Trump’s tariff program.
Notably, US automaker stocks and trade-sensitive currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars gained after early statements revealed judicial scepticism toward the tariffs.
AUD/USD found support near ten-week lows at 0.6450 and rebounded, though these downside levels remain critical – a break below could trigger a move back to 0.6400.
In Asia, USD/JPY jumped to nine-month highs.
USD/SGD held steady near six-month highs, with the upward bias in moving averages signalling potential for further gains.
USD/CNH paused overnight after reaching four-week highs earlier in the week.
Kiwi steadies after brushing seven-month low
New Zealand banks are better equipped to weather economic shocks, according to the Reserve Bank’s latest financial stability review. The November report highlights their strong position amid global uncertainty in trade and finance.
While loan defaults have edged up, they remain well below levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis. Risky lending has been curbed by tighter rules, including loan-to-value caps. Governor Christian Hawkesby noted that higher baseline mortgage loan-to-value ratio settings are achievable, and current trends in credit growth and property prices show no warning signs.
The kiwi recently hit a seven-month low against the US dollar but remains more than 3% above its April 9 trough of 0.5486.
For USD buyers, the next key resistance levels include the 21-day EMA at 0.5740, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.5796.
China’s services cool but stay resilient
China’s services sector expanded at its slowest pace in three months, with the private PMI slipping from 52.9 to 52.6 in October. Export sales weakened amid tariff uncertainty, but stronger domestic demand helped the index beat expectations.
The official PMI, which tracks larger state-linked firms, edged up from 50.1 to 50.2. Since January 2023, services activity has consistently stayed above the 50 mark – signalling ongoing growth – according to a private survey focused on smaller, export-driven businesses along China’s eastern coast.
Meanwhile, USD/CNH is trading near a three-week high. The next key resistance lies at the 100-day EMA of 7.1531.
Aussie rebounds from key support
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 3 – 7 November
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
