Iran worries continue to weigh on markets
The Australian dollar led losses overnight as concerns about the length of the Iran conflict weighed on risk assets, including global sharemarkets and economically sensitive currencies.
Markets remained nervous after an Iranian spokesperson rejected claims that the US and Iran were in negotiations to end the war. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, while the Nasdaq lost 0.8%.
The Aussie was the weakest performer, with AUD/USD down 0.6% to close at its lowest level since 5 February.
Australian monthly CPI data are due today and will be critical for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy decision. Headline inflation is forecast to remain steady at 3.8%, while trimmed mean inflation is expected to hold at 3.4%.
Kiwi lower after RBNZ warnings
The NZD was weaker yesterday after RBNZ Governor Anna Breman said supply chain disruptions are unlikely to fade quickly, even after the Iran conflict ends. Breman said the central bank is still assessing how long bottlenecks may persist and how much damage they could cause.
Breman adds that the NZD has barely moved this year against key trading partners, limiting its impact on inflation. However, she warns that rising expectations of interest rate cuts could weigh on near-term growth.
NZD/USD fell 0.6% yesterday and is now down more than 5.0% from its 2025 high of 0.6120.
For USD buyers, the next key resistance sits at the 21‑day EMA at 0.5885, followed by the 50‑day EMA at 0.5897.
USD index climbs from two-week lows as Fed stays calm
Fed Governor Stephen Miran says policymakers should avoid reacting to every headline, arguing that oil price spikes alone rarely drive sustained inflation. He says the real risk would emerge if higher prices begin feeding into wages, which could force the Fed to act. For now, Miran sees no need to raise rates and is sticking with his earlier view despite the Middle East conflict.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee struck a similar tone. He says the Fed remains more concerned about inflation than jobs, noting the US economy is closer to full employment than to its inflation target. He adds that inflation was already running too hot before the latest shock, increasing uncertainty around the outlook.
In Asia, USD/SGD has climbed more than 1.6% from its recent low of 1.2586, last seen on 28 January. The next key resistance sits at the 100‑day EMA at 1.2803, a level USD buyers may watch closely.
The USD also firmed in Chinese trading, with USD/CNH up 0.2%.
Greenback resumes gains after falling to two-week lows
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 23 – 28 March
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
