Kiwi surges as RBNZ signals end of cuts
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, as expected, with a 5–1 vote in favour.
Inflation is projected to ease toward 2% by mid-2026, with risks seen as balanced. Signs of recovery are emerging, with activity expected to strengthen next year and domestic financial stress easing.
The comments suggest the RBNZ may have ended its rate-cutting cycle. Financial markets now see a 50% chance of a rate hike by September next year (source: Bloomberg).
The kiwi rallied across markets, with NZD/USD up 1.4%, while AUD/NZD extended its reversal from 2013 highs.
Aussie jumps as prices bite
Australia’s consumer prices rose 3.8% in October, beating the 3.6% forecast. Core inflation also surprised higher at 3.3% versus 3%.
The stronger reading makes it more likely the RBA will hold steady for now. Markets now expect the Australian cash rate to remain unchanged through 2026.
The Aussie has gained for four straight sessions. Key resistance sits at the 50-day EMA of 0.6520, with 0.6600 marking a psychological level.
Yen slide stirs talk of December hike
The yen’s recent weakness is fueling speculation of a Bank of Japan rate move next month, according to former official Kazuo Momma. He told Bloomberg there’s no need to wait for clearer signals from wages or prices, as the softer currency is driving inflation via higher import costs.
USD/JPY remains above 155.00. Support sits at the 21-day EMA of 154.88, followed by the 50-day EMA of 152.77. USD buyers may look to take advantage at those levels.
Kiwi surges after RBNZ
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 24 – 29 November
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