Middle East tensions grow
The Australian dollar was the best performer across major markets overnight as increasing tensions in the Middle East boosted crude oil and precious metals such as gold and silver.
Crude oil gained 2.4%, while gold rose 0.4% and silver climbed 1.4%.
US shares fell on news reports the US military had moved aircraft carriers and refuelling tankers towards Iran after months of simmering tensions. The Dow Jones fell 0.5%.
In FX, the USD was mostly higher, although the AUD outperformed.
AUD/USD gained 0.2%, while NZD/USD rose 0.1%.
USD/SGD gained 0.1%, while USD/CNH was flat.
March RBA risk wakes up after firm jobs print
The latest jobs report surprised with a lower unemployment rate of 4.075%, a result that will make the RBA uneasy about waiting until May to act.
If another hike already feels inevitable, the small amount priced for March looks out of line with the much larger move expected by May.
Next week’s monthly inflation reading, followed by early March GDP, will decide whether March becomes a live option.
AUD/USD now trades about 1% below its recent high of 0.7147 on February 12.
Key support sits near the 21‑day EMA at 0.6996, with the 50‑day EMA lower at 0.6865.
USD/JPY climbs to week’s high on stronger investment momentum
Japan’s core machinery orders surged 19.1% in December after an 11% drop the month before, far above expectations for a modest rise.
Manufacturing orders jumped 25.1%, while non‑manufacturing orders climbed 8.2%, pointing to a clear pickup in investment and a stronger outlook for capital spending.
USD/JPY has pushed to a one‑week high and is trading above 155.00.
The next resistance sits near 156.00, while key support is around the 100‑day EMA at 154.33, where USD buyers may look to take advantage.
Aussie helped by jobs, commodity gains
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 16 – 21 Feb
