As digital innovation continues to reshape the financial landscape, fraudsters are evolving just as quickly, sparking an urgent need for cross-border payment issuers and recipients alike to shore up their defences.
A report from the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the European Central Bank (ECB) found several main fraud threat vectors across various payment methods, totalling a loss of 4.3 billion euros in the European Union during 2022 and an additional loss of 2 billion euros in the first six months of 2023.
According to Bridget Pruzin, Head of Compliance and Risk Investigations and Analysis at Convera, financial fraud trends and cross-border payment scams are evolving in deeply sophisticated ways. Powered by artificial intelligence (AI), voice cloning, deepfakes, and regulatory shifts, they may lead to business-shattering consequences.
Convera’s top fraud and payments security predictions in 2025–2026:
1. BEC scams will continue to dominate
Pruzin’s top-line prediction is clear: Business email compromise (BEC) scams will remain the dominant threat, but the methods behind BEC will continue to evolve.
“We are already seeing AI-assisted BEC, where free AI tools allow fraudsters to be more convincing with less effort, while also enabling them to work faster and increase their attempts exponentially,” Pruzin says.
Gone are the days of typo-riddled phishing emails from unknown addresses. Now, BEC scams are ultra-polished, personalized, and increasingly hard to detect. AI-generated emails can mimic tone and writing style and even refer to real-world contexts, making the message feel authentic.
Despite increasing awareness and red-flag detection by financial institutions and law enforcement, BEC scams aren’t expected to fade away. Instead, we’ll see continuous variations tailored to exploit new technologies and overlooked vulnerabilities.
2. AI, deepfakes, and voice cloning will become even more sophisticated
Fraud is becoming alarmingly effortless. With AI tools readily available online, the barrier to entry for cybercriminals is lower than ever.
“Voice cloning only requires approximately 10 minutes of a person speaking to effectively replicate and manipulate their voice,” Pruzin says.
What’s particularly concerning is that junior employees are just as vulnerable as executives, especially if they handle finance, payroll, or accounts payable. While C-suite impersonation often grabs headlines, the targeting of mid-level staff has quietly become a lucrative avenue for fraudsters.
AI-generated audio or video calls, combined with spoofed emails, create an environment where employees are increasingly uncertain about whom to trust, severely affecting their performance and confidence in standard processes.
3. Compliance and regulations will rapidly evolve
One of the biggest changes coming in 2025–2026, according to Pruzin, is a shift in regulatory expectations, especially around victim reimbursement.
“Financial institutions should be prepared for reimbursement requirements to expand to cover more fraud and customer types,” she says.
For businesses that deal with cross-border payments, staying ahead of cross-jurisdictional compliance — particularly regarding digital currencies and international payment fraud regulations — will be vital.
Already, a recent survey from KPMG found that 45% of banks say they’d drop customers who are repeat victims of financial scams because they present too much risk.
4. Refund scams will require better regulations
Pruzin warns that fraudulent refund schemes could emerge as a byproduct of expanded protections for victims.
“If an individual willingly sends funds to an account within their control, and then claims a fraudulent reimbursement, they could double their money,” she cautions.
This is not a far-fetched concern. History offers clear precedents, such as credit card refund fraud and tuition scams, where refund processes were exploited.
If not carefully structured, Pruzin notes that reimbursement programs could open new doors for criminals, especially those savvy in digital manipulation. Regulators must balance consumer and business protection with the need for rigorous oversight to avoid incentivizing “professional refunders.”
“Regulators and financial institutions must ensure they are ahead of the game to prevent this new tool from being taken advantage of,” Pruzin adds.
How to counter emerging financial fraud?
Pruzin’s outlook makes it clear that we are at a turning point in the fraud and compliance world, yet only 28% of middle-market businesses have implemented automated fraud detection systems, according to PYMNTS.
Here are some suggestions for forward-thinking companies to keep up with the rapidly evolving fraud and compliance landscape:
- Invest in fraud-resistant architecture. Real-time monitoring, behavioural analytics, and anomaly detection are no longer optional — they’re foundational.
- Train everyone, not just execs. Expand awareness training beyond senior leadership. Everyone with access to sensitive data or finances is a target.
- Conduct AI scenario drills. Simulate AI-generated voice calls and deepfake emails to see how staff respond under pressure.
- Work closely with compliance teams. Build a fraud prevention task force that includes legal, IT, finance, and risk experts. Compliance is now a cross-functional concern.
- Watch the regulatory horizon. Monitor updates from global bodies such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the Authority for Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AMLA), and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). International changes can impact your operations even if you don’t operate globally.
Fraud is shaping up to come at the cross-border payments industry faster, smarter, and sneakier. However, while bad actors may be using tomorrow’s tools, so can businesses like yours.
Platforms like Convera use real-time sanctions screening, credit fraud screening systems, and secure user authentication to help businesses meet global standards without slowing down operations. These built-in protections allow companies not only to reduce risk but also to stay several steps ahead.
Want more insights into the topics shaping the future of cross-border payments? Tune in to Converge, with new episodes every Wednesday.
