Signs are emerging that the US economy is beginning to feel the pain from the high interest rate regime. Procyclical data has been underperforming for more than two years now. The beacon of hope and the driver of the US exceptionalism thesis, the consumer and labor market, have surprised to the downside as well in recent weeks. The macro and yields based support the Greenback has enjoyed for the most part of this year is therefore starting to wane.
However, political turmoil in Europe, the possibility of a second Trump presidency, and FX weakness in Asia have added to the dollar’s appeal this month. For the currency to start giving up some of its 2024 gains, we would have to see a continuation of the global disinflation trend and for politics to move out of the spotlight.
Join analysts Boris Kovacevic and George Vessey as they break down this week’s market news.
Disclaimer: Converge is Convera’s new podcast that discusses a range of financial services topics. We want to remind our listeners that the information shared on this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please note that the opinions expressed on Converge are solely the opinions of the host and the guests, not Convera’s.