From sticky inflation to soft landing? Convera’s Q3 Outlook

July 19, 2023 Episode #11 00:20:45
Host: Alex Lawrence Guest: Nawaz Ali

Download Convera’s Q3 Economic Outlook here: ⁠Convera Global Economic Outlook 2023 Q3 Edition⁠ | As we enter H2 of 2023, businesses are growing increasingly concerned about the tightening monetary conditions. Despite one of the sharpest sequences of policy tightening in living memory, inflation, especially core inflation, remains too high.

Only Canada is forecast to fall below the 3% upper tolerance threshold by the end of 2023. Canada is forecast to submerge into a recession for the duration of 2023, while US is expected to dip into a brief and shallow technical recession in Q1 2024.

Industrial production and manufacturing sectors are forecast to contract in H2 due to their high exposure to long-term capital investment and faltering demand. The growth momentum for financial and businesses services expected to stall in Q3. Monetary policy, market volatility and changes in global risk sentiment will continue to drive currency trends. As we are approaching the apex of the tightening cycle for most major banks, heightened FX volatility is on the horizon. Join Nawaz Ali, Convera’s Head of Market Insights, as he breaks down Convera’s Q3 quarterly economic outlook in detail.

Disclaimer: Converge is Convera’s new podcast that discusses a range of financial services topics. We want to remind our listeners that the information shared on this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please note that the opinions expressed on Converge are solely the opinions of the host and the guests, not Convera’s.

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