Three months can change everything. When we published the first edition of Are You Ready for 2025? in October last year, the world was already navigating uncertainty. Now, with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, financial markets have felt the seismic shift of a political landscape in flux.
Download our updated Are You Ready for 2025? report to gain a deep understanding of global growth expectations and currency forecasts post the US election.
Download the updated report now
What’s next for the global economic outlook?
Despite political tremors, the global economic outlook for growth is holding steady. For the third year in a row, global GDP is projected to expand by just under 3% in 2025. Interest rate fears haven’t derailed momentum, and major stock indices like the Dow Jones hit record highs on more than 20 occasions last year. Even market volatility—measured by the VIX, also known as the “fear index”—has remained surprisingly low and continues to remain so after President Trump’s election win.
So, are we in the clear? Not quite. If the past five years have taught us anything, it’s that seemingly stable conditions can easily unravel.
Risks to watch in 2025
1. Confidence crisis: The “vibecession” continues
Inflation and unemployment data point to economic improvement, but sentiment remains weak with consumers and businesses displaying caution. This disconnect—referred to as “vibecession”—suggests confidence hasn’t caught up with reality, and that hesitation could slow investment and spending.
2. Geopolitical fault lines
From ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East to the US-China trade relationship, global stability is on shaky ground. Markets, particularly commodities, remain highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions, leaving the door open to future volatility.
3. Global trade war that’s no longer a ‘what if’
Trump’s election win has already had a material impact on global trade. The US dollar has surged to two-year highs, while trade-sensitive currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars have slumped to five-year lows. In the first edition of this report, we identified trade tensions as a potential risk—now, they are a certainty.
4. The central bank balancing act
After years of rate cuts and hikes, 2025 may be defined by how well central banks time their next moves. Cut rates too early, and inflation could return before price pressures fully cool. Wait too long, and the risk of a hard landing grows as unemployment ticks up. The question isn’t just what central banks will do—but whether they can pivot at the right moment.
Stay prepared for 2025: Download our updated report
With so much at stake, businesses need to stay ahead of the curve. Download our updated report now and equip yourself with the insights needed to navigate the economic trends, geopolitical risks, and FX market shifts shaping the year ahead.
Download the Are You Ready for 2025? report
Want more insights on the topics shaping the future of cross-border payments? Tune in to Converge, with new episodes every Wednesday.
Plus, register for the Daily Market Update to get the latest currency news and FX analysis from our experts directly to your inbox.
