US GDP weaker, but markets rally
US shares rebounded strongly after a weaker than expected March-quarter US GDP reading but markets still expect the US Federal Reserve will lift rates next week.
US quarterly GDP climbed an annualised 1.1% — down from the 2.6% pace seen in the December quarter. The market consensus was looking for 2.0%.
US GDP was crimped by a large run-down in inventories after businesses increased stock by the fastest pace in history in the final stages of the pandemic. However, a rebound in consumer spending provided support.
The lower-than-expected result didn’t impact Federal Reserve pricing – a rate hike is still seen as a 90% chance when the Fed meets next week (source: Refinitiv).

Aussie, kiwi jump
US shares jumped on the news with the S&P 500 up 2.0% — its biggest one-day gain since January.
The rebound in US shares sparked the Aussie and kiwi out of their recent lethargy
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD both gained 0.5%.
The Aussie and kiwi were also stronger in Europe lifting key pairs from recent lows.

All eyes on Ueda
The Bank of Japan’s new governor Kazuo Ueda will be in focus today as he leads his first policy meeting after taking over from Haruhiko Kuroda earlier this month.
After initial market speculation that Ueda might look to wind back some of the pandemic-era stimulus, Ueda has suggested he needs time to assess inflation dynamics, causing the JPY to weaken.
Today’s meeting is viewed as key to setting the agenda for Ueda’s term as governor – we might see a volatile session in Japanese FX.
Aussie, kiwi lifted from lows
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events
Calendar: 24 – 28 April

All times AEST
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