Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
USD rises following Iran strike
The US dollar strengthened early Monday as markets moved into safe haven assets after the US announced strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.
The initial reaction was relatively moderate, however, with the dollar up about 0.3%.
The US confirmed it used a mix of submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles and bunker-busting bombs dropped from B-2 stealth bombers late Saturday US time.
In early Monday trade, the dollar gained ground, with the euro and Japanese yen seeing the biggest losses versus the US dollar.
The AUD/USD fell 0.3% as it dropped to the lowest level of the month so far.
The NZD/USD also lost 0.3% as it fell to four-week lows.
In Asia, USD/SGD and USD/CNH both gained 0.2%
Japanese yen weaker despite risk-off sentiment
The Japanese yen fell on Monday, even as investors shifted toward safer assets.
The decline continued from last week, following Bank of Japan meeting minutes that flagged risks from US tariffs and warned of possible economic weakness in 2025 and 2026.
Inflation in Japan has risen slightly due to higher food prices and is expected to remain elevated before easing next year.
The US dollar is trading above its 50-day moving average of 145.05 yen and could rise further if momentum continues. Key resistance lies near the 200-day average at 148.47, while support remains around the 140.00 level.
The yen also weakened against other currencies, with the AUD/JPY nearing six-week highs.
Inflation and growth data in focus this week
Several major economies are releasing key inflation figures this week.
In Japan, inflation in Tokyo (excluding fresh food) is expected to slow to 3.3% in June from 3.6%. Singapore’s inflation rate for May is forecast to dip to 0.7% from 0.9%. Australia’s May inflation is likely to stay at 2.4%.
In Canada, monthly inflation for May is expected to rebound by 0.5% after a decline of 0.1% in the previous month.
These numbers will help shape central bank decisions on interest rates and policy.
Growth figures are also due this week. Germany’s business climate index for June is expected to rise slightly to 88.3 from 87.5, suggesting possible stabilization in Europe’s largest economy.
In the US, first-quarter growth is projected to hold steady at -0.2%, while orders for long-lasting goods in May are forecast to bounce back by 6.9% after falling 6.3%.
The US housing market will also be in focus, with existing home sales in May expected to edge down to 3.95 million from 4 million. New home sales are forecast to drop to 693,000 from 743,000.
Meanwhile, consumer confidence in the US is expected to improve modestly in June, rising to 99 from 98.
USD extends recent gains
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 23 – 28 June
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
