Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Global markets watch Iran-Israel tensions
Geopolitics remains the key driver in FX markets. Israel and Iran have continued to trade missile strikes. Israel targeted launch and storage sites, while Iran framed its response as self-defense.
Global markets were unsettled early Tuesday (APAC time) after US President Trump called for the evacuation of the Iranian capital of Tehran. On social media, Trump said: “Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign…. Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
EU foreign ministers plan to hold a video conference on Tuesday to discuss possible European action.
Aussie, kiwi return to highs short-lived
Initially, markets had regained Friday’s losses with, most notably, the AUD/USD climbing back to new seven-month highs on Monday before easing. The AUD/USD gained 0.6% on the day.
The kiwi, recently more sensitive to risk moves, outperformed the Aussie with the NZD/USD up 0.8%.
In Asia, the USD/SGD is near the bottom of its 30-day range, as the broader dollar index sits at a three-year low.
On June 12, USD/SGD hit 1.2763, with key resistance ahead at 1.2885 (21-day EMA) and 1.3001 (50-day EMA).
CNH holds steady as China retail surge beats expectations
China’s retail sales jumped 6.4% in May, the fastest pace since December 2023, smashing forecasts of 4.9% and outpacing April’s 5.1% growth.
The boost likely came from a trade war truce, Golden Week holiday, and e-commerce discounts, which kicked off in mid-May ahead of the 618 online shopping festival.
Still, questions remain about whether this momentum will last, given uncertain tariffs and fading support from the consumer trade-in program.
For USD/CNH, it is still hovering near the low end of its 30-day trading range.
The next key resistance levels will be 21-day EMA of 7.1956 and 50-day EMA of 7.2205, where USD buyers may look to take advantage.
Aussie, kiwi slip from highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Aussie, kiwi slip from highs
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
