Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist
Asia tumbles; USD/SGD and USD/CNH at highs
The Australian and NZ dollars remained some of the hardest hit currencies on Monday after the global sell-off continued through Asia.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 7.8% while the China’s Shanghai Composite lost 6.6%.
Overnight, however, US markets saw the selling pause, with the S&P 500 down only 0.2% and the tech-focused Nasdaq up 0.1%.
The US dollar was mostly higher as Asian markets sold off.
The USD/SGD gained 0.4% with the pair at two-month highs.
The USD/CNH jumped 0.7% as the pair reached three-month highs.
US tariffs to remain despite sell-off
US Treasury Secretary Bessent dismissed concerns over a potential recession caused by tariffs, stating there’s no market justification for pricing in such fears.
He emphasized that other nations must act credibly, as some have historically been “bad actors.”
Despite recent market volatility, Bessent remains confident, noting over 50 nations have approached the US for negotiations.
Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed the April 9 tariff deadline remains unchanged, and NEC Director Hassett downplayed potential consumer and labor market impacts.
Global risk sentiment indeed has deteriorated sharply.
Antipodean risk proxy currencies, like AUDUSD and NZDUSD have been hit hard. AUD/USD and NZD/USD are both now at five-year lows, at strong key psychological support of 0.6000 and 0.5585.
Japan labor data and BoJ outlook
Japan’s February labor cash earnings rose 3.1% YoY, slightly beating forecasts, but real earnings declined 1.2%.
Despite this, the market has dismissed the likelihood of BoJ rate hikes in the near term.
The latest US tariffs are expected to weigh on Japan’s GDP, leaving only one expected rate hike by mid-2027.
Meanwhile, over the weekend, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba stated his intention to draft a comprehensive agreement as the foundation for tariff talks with US President Trump. Trump and Ishiba spoke over the last 24 hours.
USD/JPY bounced off from its six-month lows, with next key resistance levels at 50-day MA of 150.21 and 200-day MA of 151.26.
USD stronger in Asia
Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges
Key global risk events
Calendar: 7 — 11 April
All times AEDT
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*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.
