,

Aussie, Chinese yuan jump as Trump’s first actions avoid new tariffs

Trade FX sees relief rally. Sterling bears watch payroll data. EUR/USD eyes PMI bounce: 1.045 resistance in focus.

Written by Steven Dooley, Head of Market Insights, and Shier Lee Lim, Lead FX and Macro Strategist

Trade FX sees relief rally

President Donald Trump’s inauguration overnight dominated headlines but a lack of any “day one” tariffs were the focus of FX markets.

The USD fell sharply as trade-focused currencies outperformed with Trump’s first actions focused on immigration, energy and diversity rollbacks.

On trade, Trump announced a study on trade policies, but will not introduce new tariffs at this time.

The euro, Aussie and kiwi – some of the hardest hit by recent trade worries – outperformed overnight.

The AUD/USD gained 1.3% to one-month closing highs while NZD/USD jumped 1.6% to also hit one-month closing highs.

The EUR/USD gained 1.4%.

In Asia, the USD/SGD fell 1.0% while USD/CNH dropped a massive 1.1% to hit the lowest level since 12 December.

Chart showing AUD/USD jumps to one-month highs

Sterling bears watch payroll data

UK labour market report will be released today.

For the Bank of England, this poll is crucial, especially the wages component. Strong private sector regular pay increase was observed in the last two reports, with averages of 0.7% m-o-m in September and October compared to half that rate for May through August, the preceding four months.

Despite the same oversold circumstances that have persisted for weeks, there is little indication that the GBP/USD pair is building a long-lasting bottom as the cable fall pauses. The next possible support layer is indicated by the 1.1941 Sep channel.

On AUD/GBP, the pair has recently lost momentum at 0.5100.

For GBP/SGD, GBP buyers might look to target the 1.6498 vicinity in the near term.

Chart showing UK jobs postings for Human resources roles

EUR/USD eyes PMI bounce: 1.045 resistance in focus

This Friday will see the release of the Euro Area PMIs.

In recent months, the PMI surveys have not been very good.

Although it represents a dip in the manufacturing sector but a rebound in services in December, the Euro Area’s composite index fell below 50.0 in November and December, suggesting a contraction.

As EUR/USD recovers from the post-payroll retest of the 1.02 support layer, it generates another momentum divergence buy signal.

Overhead, we see three layers of resistance. A short-term trend reversal would be confirmed and a move toward the 1.045–1.046 resistance zone would be the goal of a push past the first at 1.033–1.035.

In AUD/EUR, the pair continues to find resistance at 0.6050. For EUR/SGD, 1.3714 will be key support level in the short term.

Chart showing 3 layers of resistance  levels for the EUR

Trade FX jumps after Trump inauguration

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges  

Table: seven-day rolling currency trends and trading ranges

Key global risk events

Calendar: 20 – 25 January

Key global risk events calendar: 20 - 25 January

All times AEDT

Have a question? [email protected]

*The FX rates published are provided by Convera’s Market Insights team for research purposes only. The rates have a unique source and may not align to any live exchange rates quoted on other sites. They are not an indication of actual buy/sell rates, or a financial offer.

Get the latest currency and FX news

Subscribe to receive monthly insights, daily reports, and more — empowering you to navigate global commerce and FX strategy.